朱亮亮 阳玉云（重庆市设计院有限公司，重庆市 400015）

Theoretical Analysis of Hourly Load of Civil Buildings

ZHU Liangliang YANG Yuyun（Chongqing Architectural Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing 400015，China）

Abstract：Based on the analysis of complicated and changeable actual electrical load curves,this paper puts forward an equivalent analysis idea of replacing the actual load with the average load in a specific period of time based on energy losses,so as to obtain the steady‑state time required for the average power of different types of equipment to approximate to be stable under different conditions by using the central limit theorem. Additionally,this paper further discusses the influence of steady‑state time on subsection time width and qualitatively analyzes the fluctuation of hourly load at different time and different distribution points,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the data analysis of hourly load calculation in the next step.

Key words：central limit theorem;normal distribution;average coefficient;steady‑state time;steady‑state average power;segmented time width;hourly load;load forecast

摘　要：从复杂多变的实际用电负荷曲线分析入手，基于电能损耗，提出用特定时段内的平均负荷代替实际负荷的等效分析思路，并利用中心极限定理得出不同类型、不同情况下设备平均功率近似趋于平稳所需要的稳态时间。进一步讨论稳态时间对分段时间宽度的影响，定性分析逐时负荷在不同时间、不同配电点的波动，为下一步逐时负荷计算的数据分析提供理论依据。

关键词：中心极限定理；正态分布；平均系数；稳态时间；稳态平均功率；分段时间宽度；逐时负荷；负荷预测

中图分类号：TU852                　  文献标识码：A

doi：10.3969 / j. issn.1003 － 8493.2024.03.005